Trying to find clarity amidst the madness
It has been nearly six months since a large-scale attack in Israel thrust the region into war. I wrote a lengthy, scattered post about it in the early days, reacting to the complexity of being a liberal Jewish person watching Israel descend into chaos and madness.
In the intervening months, some things have become clearer to me, and others remain a muddle. I would like to share my updated observations and perspective, understanding the limits of talking about a crisis in the middle of the crisis.
- Netanyahu has to go.
Until he does, until a new Israeli government takes over, this crisis will never end. There are a number of ways in which he has proven himself to be inept, dishonest, and driven by the need to remain in power. Specifically, his fidelity to the most extreme right-wing voices in his coalition has resulted in starvation, forced evictions, over-the-top violence, and increased settlement activity. He is salting the Earth against a future Palestinian state, and increasingly his bad actions are turning the world against Israel. It is my judgment that his continued leadership poses a greater threat to Israel than Hamas and Hezbollah combined. If Israel loses American support, it will be due to his massive incompetence.
In a perverse way, Netanyahu has given a gift to his eventual successor. It is highly unlikely his Likud party will remain in power once elections are held, and any new government will appear liberal by comparison. The simple and frankly obvious step of restoring unrestricted food deliveries to Gaza will be seen as benevolent statecraft instead of being the bare minimum the law and humanity requires. - Hamas needs to be defeated from within, and not by Israel
In the early weeks of the war, Israel’s military demonstrated for the umpteenth time their vast military superiority over Hamas. There is no question that in a fair fight, Israel wins every time. That is why Hamas doesn’t fight fair: they conducted a sneak attack, took hostages, and fled back to within a civilian population. When Israel came after them, they demanded a humanitarian ceasefire, saying that any attempt to come after them would be a war crime because of the presence of civilians. They created the problem, and I have no sympathy for their cries of victimhood.
The Gazan civilians, however, are victims of both Israel and Hamas. They are caught between a military superpower and a ruthless, frightened faction of armed zealots. Calls from Israel for Gazans to turn against Hamas and overthrow them assume a level of control and volition that simply doesn’t exist; Gazans have no practical ability to challenge Hamas, and won’t have that capability until they are joined by other Arab and Muslim voices and forces.
Hamas has been negotiating for a permanent ceasefire, and based on its negotiating position, it believes it is winning the war and can remain in power. Israel cannot and will not allow that to happen; no ceasefire will be permanent unless it results in removing Hamas from power.
In my opinion, the solution will require regional allies to propose an alternative government that is run by Palestinians- not an outside force of any kind- and that has a clear mandate to rebuild, restore order, and negotiate for a permanent peace, not just a permanent ceasefire. Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar, and Egypt have a role to play here, and they have the financial ability and moral authority to be credible arbiters of an alternative government for Gaza.
- Iran’s proxies need to be challenged and defeated everywhere they operate
Among the only things that Israel is doing right is its targeting of Iranian militia leaders in Syria and throughout the region. Iran is playing a dangerous, destabilizing game. They are trying to take advantage of this conflict to sew regional discord and elevate their own influence. The Houthi rebels, Hezbollah, and the other factions and acolytes of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard must be eliminated from all areas in which they are ensconced.
Since Iran benefits from the conflict, it will have an incentive to undermine any peaceful solution. Since Israel is so trigger-happy in the wake of the October 7 attacks, it is not difficult for Iran and its proxies to derail any de-escalation by launching missiles, employing snipers, or carrying out terrorist attacks. They must be denounced, attacked, and removed from the areas they claim outside of Iran and throughout the region. - The anti-Israel left still doesn’t have a clue
My liberal friends continue to consistently disappoint me when they talk about Israel. Just today, I spent part of my morning fact-checking and disputing a meme about how (1) Israel claimed that rapes happened but it was all made up and (2) the IDF shot a pregnant woman after raping her in front of her entire family. Neither of these things was true, but by the time a lengthy thread of comments produced the receipts to dispute them, there were three other memes up, again parroting anti-Israel talking points.
On a recent visit to see my sister in Virginia, we encountered an anti-Israel march, with chants of “5, 6, 7, 8, we don’t want no JEW state,” emphasis in the original. It is easy to see why protests are the conflict are being conflated with anti-Semitism.
There is a real and valuable conversation to be had about Israel’s role as a ethno-nationalist state in a region prone to conflict. The reactionary left doesn’t engage with that conversation: they engage in sloganeering, hyperbole, and propaganda. Outrage politics are not constructive, and they have largely had the effect of making the Israelis dig in their heels, as they are seen as proof that the world truly doesn’t understand and doesn’t support Israel’s right to safety.
If Israel accepted the demands of the left and unilaterally stopped its operations in Gaza, what would happen? Hamas would remain in power, and would plan their next attack; they have stated that October 7 was only the beginning. Since taking hostages proved so effective, we can expect to see more people assaulted and held captive. Withdrawing from Gaza without a plan is no solution, and I am yet to hear a credible leftist proposal for unwinding the conflict in a way calculated to lead to lasting peace. - The UN is causing more harm than it helps
When Israel accused UNRWA of having ties to Hamas generally, and the October 7 attacks specifically- an accusation UNRWA did not deny- it gave Israel a colorable excuse to cut off their access and funding. This was a distraction that nobody needed, since UNRWA is tasked with providing relief to the very people who are suffering most.
At the same time, the UN took months before acknowledging sexual violence by Hamas, which they did with such general, milquetoast language that it seemed to be a begrudging acknowledgement in the face of overwhelming evidence, including first-hand accounts.
The UN resolutions for a ceasefire are a political sideshow, a zero-stakes game that has no impact on the conflict, but gives superpowers the ability to claim they are taking action, when all they are really doing is taking meaningless votes.
This conflict is beyond the UN’s ability to effect positive influence, and they should step aside and let other actors- ideally led by other states in the region- take the lead in the rebuilding effort. - A viable Palestinian state is still crucial, and is going to require a lot of money
Now that Gaza has been all but leveled by the IDF, it will require a massive amount of investment in order to rebuild. In my view, if they rebuild it as it was- an impoverished enclave- a major opportunity will be missed.
Gaza should be rebuilt as an economic powerhouse, with modern construction, dynamic port facilities, and the infrastructure needed to become a regional beacon of development and prosperity. There would be poetic justice in creating an independent Gaza that is the envy of the region, including Israel. Economic prosperity- not subsistence levels of donated food- is the best way to combat extremism in the long-term. This will require a high level of support from the United States- both financially, and in restraining Israel from interfering- as well as other regional and world powers.
The Israeli voices- a minority for sure, but a loud minority- arguing against an eventual Palestinian state are playing a dangerous game. There are three possibilities that do not involve a two-state solution: a united Israel that does not have a Jewish majority; an ethnically cleansed Israel where Palestinians have been largely killed or deported; or an apartheid state in which Jewish Israelis are the only ones with full citizenship. All of these are unacceptable to me, and I believe would be unacceptable to most.
Palestinians must be empowered to declare statehood on a viable territory encompassing Gaza and the great majority of the West Bank. In previous times, arguments about the precise borders, whether Palestine can militarize, and other ancillary issues have doomed negotiations to failure. I believe the first step- declaring a state in the areas where there is broad consensus that state should be situated- should not wait on a final, comprehensive agreement to all terms. Independence can build momentum, and the Palestinian people have waited generations for statehood; they should not be made to wait another generation to raise their flag.
~AG
I'll Think of a Catchy Title Later 